Making sense of Prelims 2026 – (Not a ) Cut off Prediction

The Prelims 2026 paper got over.

About 72 hours ago.

And this year, I have countless calls.

After many years.

But the worst ones are from people who have given so many attempts at Civils -- that they have more to look back to than to look ahead to.

In fact, as I transition from 30s to 40s, I feel UPSC preparation becomes much like life itself.¹

This year is particularly difficult for selected candidates – who have gotten a rank somehow — but not the service of choice.

( With recent guidelines, selected candidates ( except IAS, IPS, IFS ) can only take one attempt. )

Here are a few reflections on Prelims 2026.

#1 The Paper was lengthy. Lengthy= tough

The easiest way to make a paper tough is to make it lengthy. Lengthy under non-exam/ home conditions is very different from lengthy under exam pressure. In 46 degrees of heat. In a dilapidated government school. With hot winds blowing through the window next to your desk.

#2 CSAT was equally tough

No matter what people say and score , the CSAT paper was no less tricky. People clearing CSAT for 2 attempts have also fallen ²

#3 The Cut off is likely to fall like the rupee ³

When some people ⁴ called me incessantly for the cut off, I called Anshuman. He was the Rank #1 of SFG and Simulators in 2025. When the cut off went as low as 92 in CSP 2025, our Prelims topper would score 30+ marks above the cut-off!⁵

I just wanted to know what the ceiling was. So when Anshuman said –

I am scoring 110 as per provisional official answer key

I was relieved. The cut off should fall to at max CSE 2023 cut-off levels, and maybe even lower. ⁶

I have been running ForumIAS Community for 14 years, and while everyone including *India Bhai* and Vinay at Insights made cut-off predictions — and often got it right, I never did. Not in the past 14 years.

So I asked Anshuman, what the cut off would be – he said 75+/-5 ⁷

Until next time

❤️

Neyawn

1. Getting old in life is also much life getting old in UPSC preparation -- the scariest part is when you have more attempts ( and life ) behind you than ahead of you.[↩]
2. The CSAT fiasco can also help lower the GS cut off, I am told [↩]
3. self censored, no state pressure[↩]
4. one Raj, an old student and a bright kid who cleared the exam in very first attempt, but is yet to get IAS [↩]
5. Anshuman has secured Rank 2 in IFoS this year – so that is his credentials, if you are seeking one [↩]
6. There are other top performers too who have gotten 110+ but no one has exceeded 112 so far[↩]
7. I believe him, given that top scorers this year in my Universe have scored not more than 110-111, and ever year they would score like 120-140 when cut off would be in 90s [↩]